Week 6 trendsthrough week 5
Whose role changed, why, and whether it lasts: usage shifts, points against expected, team changes and schedule swings.
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Biggest moves
- Due for more▲
QB · ARI · QB15 · 15.8 · @ LA16.9 a game on 22.1 expected, 3.8 TDs short of what his touches usually return. Volume like this tends to catch up.
36% rosteredHold
Role changes
Share of team targetsQuarterbacks have a job rather than a share. Changes at the position are under Team shifts.
Shares through week 5: each player's team's last 2 games against the games before them. A dotted bar is a game he missed. Points are PPR.
Luck check
Points scored against what the touches were worth▲Due for more
Earning the volume, not the points. Touchdowns tend to catch up.
- Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI−5.3
16.9 a game on 22.1 expected · 3.8 TDs short of expectation · wk 6 QB15 @ LA
- Daniel JonesQB · IND−5.1
10.7 a game on 15.7 expected · 3.9 TDs short of expectation · wk 6 QB26 vs TEN
- Justin HerbertQB · LAC−4.4
11.5 a game on 16.0 expected · 1.6 TDs short of expectation · wk 6 QB27 @ KC
- Matthew StaffordQB · LA−3.4
17.8 a game on 21.2 expected · 1.8 TDs short of expectation · wk 6 QB4 vs ARI
- Bo NixQB · DEN−2.8
13.4 a game on 16.2 expected · 1.7 TDs short of expectation · wk 6 QB25 vs SEA
- Dak PrescottQB · DAL−2.3
18.8 a game on 21.0 expected · 2.2 TDs short of expectation · wk 6 QB12 @ GB
▼Due to cool off
Points well past what the volume was worth. Hard to keep up.
- Josh AllenQB · BUF+4.0
28.9 a game on 24.9 expected · 1.6 TDs over expectation · wk 6 QB1 @ LV
- Brock PurdyQB · SF+3.7
22.7 a game on 19.0 expected · 3.3 TDs over expectation · wk 6 QB2 vs WAS
- Geno SmithQB · NYJ+2.6
14.7 a game on 12.1 expected · 2.0 TDs over expectation · wk 6 QB23 @ NE
- Kirk CousinsQB · LV+2.2
18.5 a game on 16.3 expected · 3.6 TDs over expectation · wk 6 QB11 vs BUF
- Jayden DanielsQB · WAS+1.9
21.6 a game on 19.6 expected · 1.4 TDs short of expectation · wk 6 QB7 @ SF
- Aaron RodgersQB · PIT+1.6
17.0 a game on 15.5 expected · 2.0 TDs over expectation · wk 6 QB21 @ TB
Expected points through week 5; they arrive a day or two after the games. Season to date, over games with expected points.
Team shifts
New quarterbacks, and offenses changing how much they play or throwCarson Wentz → Kyler Murray
- Points a game
- 23.7 → 19.0
- Plays a game
- 52.7 → 67.0
- Neutral pass rate
- 43% → 55%
Caleb Williams → Tyson Bagent
- Points a game
- 29.7 → 15.0
- Plays a game
- 67.7 → 76.0
- Neutral pass rate
- 56% → 61%
Caleb Williams, D'Andre Swift, Luther Burden III
Drew Lock → Sam Darnold
- Points a game
- 25.0 → 29.5
- Plays a game
- 58.7 → 55.0
- Neutral pass rate
- 54% → 44%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sam Darnold, Emanuel Wilson
Lamar Jackson → Tyler Huntley
- Points a game
- 30.7 → 27.0
- Plays a game
- 57.7 → 63.0
- Neutral pass rate
- 51% → 57%
Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Lamar Jackson
Baker Mayfield → Jalon Daniels
- Points a game
- 20.7 → 19.0
- Plays a game
- 55.0 → 61.0
- Neutral pass rate
- 57% → 50%
Bucky Irving, Baker Mayfield, Emeka Egbuka
Marcus Mariota → Jayden Daniels
- Points a game
- 25.0 → 20.0
- Plays a game
- 65.3 → 57.0
- Neutral pass rate
- 59% → 52%
Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Each team's last 2 games against its games before them. Neutral pass rate counts early downs with the score within a touchdown.
Schedule swing
Next 3 opponents against the last 3, by rank against the position▲Getting easier
Start with more confidence; add or trade for them before the soft stretch.
- SFWAS 25ATL 30bye wk 88 → 28
Mike Evans, Jordan Watkins
- CINBAL 28TEN 31bye wk 611 → 30
- MININD 21DET 32bye wk 610 → 27
- CLEBAL 28TEN 31PIT 89 → 22
Denzel Boston, KC Concepcion
- JAXHOU 26IND 21bye wk 716 → 24
Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers
▼Getting harder
Trade before the stretch; line up bench cover.
- NYJNE 15MIA 4LV 1426 → 11
Garrett Wilson, Isaiah Williams
- CARPHI 20TB 9GB 2431 → 18
Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker
- ATLCHI 18SF 6TB 923 → 11
Drake London, Jahan Dotson
- HOUJAX 22NYG 10bye wk 826 → 16
Nico Collins, Xavier Hutchinson
- SEADEN 1KC 2CHI 1816 → 7
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp
Each defense's current adjusted rank against the position, 1 the stingiest, applied to past and future opponents alike.
This week's start/sit calls are on Start/Sit.