Week 6 edges

Every number here is fantasy points per game against that subject's own career average, over games matching a condition week 6 repeats — so +3.0 means three points better than he usually is, not three points better than the next player. Eight conditions are known before kickoff: home or away, indoors or out, the surface, favourite or underdog, days of rest, the kickoff slot, whether it is a division game, and the opponent. Weather is not among them, because the schedule carries no forecast — only what the temperature turned out to be afterwards. This is history, not a projection. The house model does not use it: opponent and environment adjustments were measured against 10,000 player-weeks and made its forecasts worse. Starters only — the QB1, the K1, the TE1, RB1–RB2 and WR1–WR3, plus every defense — because a career split over a backup's handful of starts is a wide number attached to somebody who will not play.