Week 6 start/sit44 calls
This week's lineup calls: where the model and the experts disagree, game-time injury decisions, and the best and worst matchups.
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Biggest calls
- Strongest startinto the starting range
QB · CHI @ ATL · QB3 · 20.1Model QB3, experts QB14, about +4.1 points. The experts have him outside a 12-team starting lineup; the model starts him.
90% rosteredCompare - Biggest fadeout of the starting range
RB · SEA @ DEN · RB25 · 8.7Model RB25, experts RB16, about −2.0 points. The experts start him in a 12-team league; the model has him on the bench.
84% rosteredCompare - Biggest injury question84% to play
QB · BAL @ CLE · QB10 · 17.2Missed practice; experts cooling · 17.2 if he plays · if he sits, Joe Fagnano (2.0)
Decide by Sun 1:00 PMCompare with backup
Model vs experts
Gaps in projected points, lineup-changing ones first (12-team league)| Player · why | Experts → model | Gap | This week | Range | Rostered | Action | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QB14 → QB3+4.1 pts | +4.1 | 20.1 @ ATL Sun 1:00 PM | 1126 | 90% | Compare | ||
WR57 → WR31+3.1 pts | +3.1 | 8.9 @ KC Sun 4:25 PM | 118 | 93% | Compare | ||
WR56 → WR35+2.8 pts | +2.8 | 8.6 @ LV Sun 4:25 PM | 020 | 94% | Compare | ||
QB13 → QB6+2.7 pts | +2.7 | 18.8 vs LAC Sun 4:25 PM | 1127 | 93% | Compare | ||
RB26 → RB16+2.2 pts | +2.2 | 10.7 @ NYG Sun 1:00 PM | 417 | 61% | Compare | ||
Davante AdamsWR · LA | WR13 → WR7+2.6 pts | +2.6 | 16.8 vs ARI Sun 4:05 PM | 724 | 98% | Compare | |
Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TEN | WR30 → WR20+2.5 pts | +2.5 | 11.5 @ IND Sun 1:00 PM | 518 | 64% | Compare | |
Devaughn VeleWR · NO | WR27 → WR21+1.8 pts | +1.8 | 11.0 @ NYG Sun 1:00 PM | 418 | 47% | Preview on my team → | |
Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR | WR16 → WR10+1.6 pts | +1.6 | 15.3 @ PHI Sun 1:00 PM | 720 | 98% | Compare |
Dashed mark: the last starter in a 12-team league. Shading: the starting range. Gap: his projection minus the model's projection at his expert rank.
Game-time decisions
Starters whose status is in doubt, grouped by kickoff
16.3 if he plays100%
11.2 if he plays74%
17.2 if he plays84%
Breece HallRB16 · NYJ84% to playDNPexperts dropped him1st game back · line cut 15%Missed practice; experts not ranking him
11.2 if he plays84%
DeVonta SmithWR23 · PHI84% to playDNP1st game back · line cut 16%Missed practice; experts not ranking him
11.0 if he plays84%
18.4 if he plays94%
10.3 if he plays94%
19.2 if he plays100%
13.2 if he plays100%
10.7 if he plays100%
9.4 if he plays100%
12.4 if he plays10%
19.0 if he plays100%
8.9 if he plays100%
Not playingOut
Most points at stake first within each kickoff. Official game statuses arrive Friday. Backup projections don't yet include a bump for the starter sitting.
Best and worst matchups
Starters facing a top- or bottom-3 defense at their position▲Easiest
Facing a bottom-3 defense
20.9 pts30thBrock PurdyQB2 · vs WAS
19.9 pts31stJordan LoveQB5 · vs DAL
17.1 pts29thZay FlowersWR6 · @ CLE
17.0 pts29thJavonte WilliamsRB7 · @ GB
16.1 pts31stAshton JeantyRB10 · vs BUF
13.8 pts31stGeorge KittleTE4 · vs WAS
11.1 pts30thCam SkatteboRB15 · vs NO
10.5 pts30thLuther Burden IIIWR22 · @ ATL
▼Toughest
Facing a top-3 defense
23.8 pts1stJaxon Smith-NjigbaWR2 · @ DEN
18.9 pts3rdChristian McCaffreyRB6 · vs WAS
17.6 pts1stTrey McBrideTE2 · @ LA
9.7 pts3rdBrenton StrangeTE11 · vs HOU
9.4 pts2ndWoody MarksRB24 · @ JAX
8.9 pts2ndLadd McConkeyWR31 · @ KCmodel above expertson the report
Defense rank against the position, adjusted for schedule. 1st is the stingiest.
Role changes over several weeks are on Trends. Last starters in a 12-team league: QB12, RB24, WR36, TE12. Borderline goes 6 deeper.