Week 6 trendsthrough week 5
Whose role changed, why, and whether it lasts: usage shifts, points against expected, team changes and schedule swings.
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Biggest moves
- Biggest role gain▲
13% → 27% target share over the last 2 games.
42% rosteredStart - Due for more▲
QB · ARI · QB15 · 15.8 · @ LA16.9 a game on 22.1 expected, 3.8 TDs short of what his touches usually return. Volume like this tends to catch up.
36% rosteredHold - Biggest role loss▼
27% → 15% target share over the last 2 games. Puka Nacua back wks 4–5, active wk 6.
98% rosteredTrade
Role changes
Share of team targets (WR/TE) or of the backfield’s carries plus targets (RB)| Player · why | By week | Before → now | RZ | Pts/g | This week | Rostered | Action | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28% → 92% | 3 | 5.7 → 13.7 | RB31 · 7.0 @ NE | 81%▲1 | Watch status | ||
 | 35% → 75% | 6 | 3.6 → 20.1 | RB25 · 8.7 @ DEN | 84%▲31 | Hold | ||
 | 5% → 19% | 3 | 4.0 → 7.3 | WR76 · 4.0 vs TEN | 0% | Watch status | ||
 | 10% → 26% | 2 | 0.7 → 6.7 | Bye | 1% | Watch | ||
 | 13% → 27% | 1 | 6.7 → 15.2 | TE11 · 9.7 vs HOU | 42%▲9 | Start | ||
 | 8% → 17% | 2 | 11.6 → 8.3 | TE15 · 8.6 @ PHI | 21%▼18 | Add → | ||
 | 7% → 20% | 2 | 6.3 → 16.1 | — | 2% | Add → | ||
 | 40% → 73% | 11 | 7.6 → 16.4 | Bye | 79%▲12 | Hold | ||
 | 23% → 33% | 3 | 7.2 → 26.1 | WR11 · 14.9 vs NO | 99% | Start | ||
 | 10% → 20% | 3 | 2.8 → 7.8 | TE25 · 6.7 @ ATL | 92%▼1 | Hold | ||
 | 21% → 33% | 5 | 12.6 → 19.4 | WR16 · 13.7 vs WAS | 95% | Start | ||
 | 67% → 94% | 3 | 13.5 → 26.2 | RB11 · 16.0 @ TB | 94%▲1 | Hold | ||
 | 56% → 77% | 12 | 17.7 → 28.1 | RB3 · 22.4 vs ARI | 99% | Start | ||
 | 57% → 80% | 6 | 13.7 → 11.3 | RB17 · 10.5 vs HOU | 94% | Hold | ||
 | 11% → 21% | 0 | 3.4 → 7.5 | WR70 · 4.6 vs CAR | 58%▼5 | Watch status |
Shares through week 5: each player's team's last 2 games against the games before them. A dotted bar is a game he missed. Points are PPR.
Luck check
Points scored against what the touches were worth▲Due for more
Earning the volume, not the points. Touchdowns tend to catch up.
- Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI−5.3
16.9 a game on 22.1 expected · 3.8 TDs short of expectation · wk 6 QB15 @ LA
- Daniel JonesQB · IND−5.1
10.7 a game on 15.7 expected · 3.9 TDs short of expectation · wk 6 QB26 vs TEN
- −5.0
12.8 a game on 17.8 expected · 2.4 TDs short of expectation · wk 6 WR19 @ LA
- Justin HerbertQB · LAC−4.4
11.5 a game on 16.0 expected · 1.6 TDs short of expectation · wk 6 QB27 @ KC
- −4.1
16.9 a game on 21.0 expected · 2.4 TDs short of expectation · wk 6 RB10 vs BUF
- J.K. DobbinsRB · DEN−3.7
7.2 a game on 11.0 expected · 2.4 TDs short of expectation · wk 6 RB30 vs SEA
▼Due to cool off
Points well past what the volume was worth. Hard to keep up.
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA+10.0
27.9 a game on 17.9 expected · 3.8 TDs over expectation · wk 6 WR2 @ DEN
- Zay FlowersWR · BAL+7.1
20.4 a game on 13.4 expected · 1.3 TDs over expectation · wk 6 WR6 @ CLE
- Christian WatsonWR · GB+6.5
21.9 a game on 15.4 expected · 2.6 TDs over expectation · wk 6 WR3 vs DAL
- Darius CooperWR · PHI+5.5
14.7 a game on 9.2 expected · 3.8 TDs over expectation · wk 6 WR56 vs CAR
- +4.5
15.9 a game on 11.4 expected · 1.6 TDs over expectation
- Nico CollinsWR · HOU+4.4
20.9 a game on 16.5 expected · 0.9 TDs over expectation · wk 6 WR8 @ JAX
Expected points through week 5; they arrive a day or two after the games. Season to date, over games with expected points.
Team shifts
New quarterbacks, and offenses changing how much they play or throwCarson Wentz → Kyler Murray
- Points a game
- 23.7 → 19.0
- Plays a game
- 52.7 → 67.0
- Neutral pass rate
- 43% → 55%
Caleb Williams → Tyson Bagent
- Points a game
- 29.7 → 15.0
- Plays a game
- 67.7 → 76.0
- Neutral pass rate
- 56% → 61%
Caleb Williams, D'Andre Swift, Luther Burden III
Drew Lock → Sam Darnold
- Points a game
- 25.0 → 29.5
- Plays a game
- 58.7 → 55.0
- Neutral pass rate
- 54% → 44%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sam Darnold, Emanuel Wilson
Lamar Jackson → Tyler Huntley
- Points a game
- 30.7 → 27.0
- Plays a game
- 57.7 → 63.0
- Neutral pass rate
- 51% → 57%
Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Lamar Jackson
Baker Mayfield → Jalon Daniels
- Points a game
- 20.7 → 19.0
- Plays a game
- 55.0 → 61.0
- Neutral pass rate
- 57% → 50%
Bucky Irving, Baker Mayfield, Emeka Egbuka
Marcus Mariota → Jayden Daniels
- Points a game
- 25.0 → 20.0
- Plays a game
- 65.3 → 57.0
- Neutral pass rate
- 59% → 52%
Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Each team's last 2 games against its games before them. Neutral pass rate counts early downs with the score within a touchdown.
Schedule swing
Next 3 opponents against the last 3, by rank against the position▲Getting easier
Start with more confidence; add or trade for them before the soft stretch.
- SFWAS 25ATL 30bye wk 88 → 28
Mike Evans, Jordan Watkins
- CINBAL 28TEN 31bye wk 611 → 30
- MININD 21DET 32bye wk 610 → 27
- CLEBAL 28TEN 31PIT 89 → 22
Denzel Boston, KC Concepcion
- JAXHOU 26IND 21bye wk 716 → 24
Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers
▼Getting harder
Trade before the stretch; line up bench cover.
- NYJNE 15MIA 4LV 1426 → 11
Garrett Wilson, Isaiah Williams
- CARPHI 20TB 9GB 2431 → 18
Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker
- ATLCHI 18SF 6TB 923 → 11
Drake London, Jahan Dotson
- HOUJAX 22NYG 10bye wk 826 → 16
Nico Collins, Xavier Hutchinson
- SEADEN 1KC 2CHI 1816 → 7
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp
Each defense's current adjusted rank against the position, 1 the stingiest, applied to past and future opponents alike.
This week's start/sit calls are on Start/Sit.