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Our projections now have a track record

See how our numbers stack up against the experts every week, plan for the rest of the season, and find this week's best matchups in one click.

FantasyProjections.comOctober 20th, 20263 min read
The 2026 track record after week 6. Our average miss is 5.27 points against the experts' 5.13 over 176 player-weeks, and ours was closer on 47% of them; by position we were closer on 58% of quarterbacks.

We've been busy since launch. Start/Sit, Edges and the player pages have all been redesigned, and news stories now show which players they affect and how much their projections moved. Below are the three new features we're most excited about.

Track record: our own receipts

The Track record page's What counts panel: each player-week compares our projection with the experts' against the PPR points he scored, only projections locked at kickoff count, a player counts when he played, both sides had a number for him and one had him at 5 points or more, and kickers and defenses are left out.

Every pick on the site is graded against our projections, so our projections should be graded too. The new Track record page compares each projection we lock at kickoff with what the player actually scored, and with the expert consensus for the same player. Only the number shown before the game counts. A player is included if he played, both sides had a projection for him, and at least one side had him at 5 points or more.

The record began in week 6, and the experts came out slightly ahead. Over 176 player-weeks our projections missed by 5.27 points on average and theirs by 5.13, and ours were closer 47% of the time. Quarterbacks were our best position, closer 58% of the time. We've already made changes aimed at closing that gap, and you'll be able to see each week whether they're working. Every week stays on the page, good or bad, and each new one appears once its last game is final.

Rest of season

Rankings for running backs set to Rest of season in a 12-team league: Jahmyr Gibbs first with 242.0 points over 11 games, 25.1 a game, 63.8 in weeks 15 to 17 and 145.6 over replacement, then Kenneth Walker III, Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson.

Rankings has a new Rest of season switch. Each player is ranked on his expected points from now through week 17, with his byes and his chance of playing each game already in the number, so a back on IR until week 10 adds nothing before then. Weeks 15 to 17, the usual fantasy playoffs, get their own column. Choose your league size to see his points over the last starter at his position, which is what he's really worth to you. The same numbers are on player pages, in Compare and on Waivers. On any team under My teams, Trade advice shows what a trade does to your best starting lineup in every week left. Depth that never starts counts for nothing, which a trade chart misses.

Matchups, rebuilt

The Matchups heatmap with Detroit's receiver square open: Detroit ranks 32nd against receivers, allowing 44.0 a game, and the Green Bay receivers facing them this week are Christian Watson at 14.5, Matthew Golden at 12.9 and Savion Williams at 3.8, each with a Compare or Preview on my team button.

The Matchups page now shows the whole league at once: every defense against every position, coloured from the stingiest (1st, red) to the most generous (32nd, green). Click or tap any square to see why that team ranks there and the starters lining up against it this week, with their projections, how widely they're rostered, and a one-tap Preview on my team or Compare. Switch to Next 3, Playoffs or Rest of season to see each team's schedule over the weeks ahead in the same colours, for the trade and waiver calls that depend on what's coming. Three cards up top give the answers first: this week's softest spot and who's best placed to use it, the best run over the next three weeks, and the toughest stretch.

If something looks wrong, or you've got an idea, get in touch.

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