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Week 6 edges

Who this week's conditions (venue, weather, spread, opponent) have historically suited.

Position

Every number here is fantasy points per game against that subject's own career average, over games matching a condition week 6 repeats — so +3.0 means three points better than he usually is, not three points better than the next player. Eight conditions are known before kickoff: home or away, indoors or out, the surface, favourite or underdog, days of rest, the kickoff slot, whether it is a division game, and the opponent. Weather is not among them, because the schedule carries no forecast — only what the temperature turned out to be afterwards. This is history, not a projection. The house model does not use it: opponent and environment adjustments were measured against 10,000 player-weeks and made its forecasts worse. Starters only — the QB1, the K1, the TE1, RB1–RB2 and WR1–WR3, plus every defense — because a career split over a backup's handful of starts is a wide number attached to somebody who will not play.

How to read this

Every number here is fantasy points per game against that subject's own career average, over games matching a condition week 6 repeats — so +3.0 means three points better than he usually is, not three points better than the next player. Eight conditions are known before kickoff: home or away, indoors or out, the surface, favourite or underdog, days of rest, the kickoff slot, whether it is a division game, and the opponent. Weather is not among them, because the schedule carries no forecast — only what the temperature turned out to be afterwards. This is history, not a projection. The house model does not use it: opponent and environment adjustments were measured against 10,000 player-weeks and made its forecasts worse. Starters only — the QB1, the K1, the TE1, RB1–RB2 and WR1–WR3, plus every defense — because a career split over a backup's handful of starts is a wide number attached to somebody who will not play.

This week suits them

Best combined history under week 6's conditions

  1. Jonathan TaylorRB IND v TEN19.2 proj+1.1
    vs TEN +4.5(6g)As favourite +3.5(25g)
  2. Michael WilsonWR ARI v LA12.6 proj+1.0
    vs LA +5.6(5g)In division +2.9(18g)
  3. Daniel JonesQB IND v TEN12.5 proj+1.0
    As favourite +3.6(17g)vs TEN +3.2(3g)
  4. Jayden DanielsQB WAS v SF18.2 proj+1.0
    On extra rest +5.5(5g)In primetime +1.9(8g)
  5. Tyjae SpearsRB TEN v IND6.1 proj+0.9
    vs IND +5.6(5g)On turf +3.3(6g)
  6. Rachaad WhiteRB WAS v SF7.0 proj+0.9
    vs SF +5.1(4g)On extra rest +2.1(15g)
  7. Puka NacuaWR LA v ARI26.2 proj+0.9
    On short rest +6.2(11g)At home +1.9(24g)
  8. Jacoby BrissettQB ARI v LA15.8 proj+0.8
    Indoors +3.2(16g)vs LA +3.1(3g)
  9. Kendrick BourneWR ARI v LA7.2 proj+0.7
    vs LA +8.1(3g)Indoors +2.5(13g)
  10. Tyler ShoughQB NO v NYG18.0 proj+0.7
    On the road +2.1(9g)As favourite +2.1(5g)
  11. Khalil ShakirWR BUF v LV8.1 proj+0.6
    Indoors +3.3(8g)On short rest +3.1(13g)
  12. Trey McBrideTE ARI v LA17.6 proj+0.6
    On turf +2.6(20g)Indoors +1.4(39g)

This week works against them

Worst combined history under week 6's conditions

  1. Ladd McConkeyWR LAC v KC8.9 proj-1.7
    As underdog -4.1(10g)Outdoors -3.8(13g)
  2. Omarion HamptonRB LAC v KC10.0 proj-1.4
    On grass -6.8(3g)vs KC -4.5(2g)
  3. Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS v SF8.0 proj-1.3
    In primetime -5.0(5g)On extra rest -3.8(5g)
  4. Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR v PHI15.3 proj-1.0
    As favourite -5.1(4g)On the road -1.6(11g)
  5. Davante AdamsWR LA v ARI16.8 proj-0.8
    vs ARI -8.7(3g)On short rest -2.5(12g)
  6. DAL D/STDST DAL v GB3.4 proj-0.8
    vs GB -6.3(3g)As underdog -1.9(33g)
  7. Dak PrescottQB DAL v GB16.9 proj-0.8
    vs GB +8.5(3g)As underdog -2.4(21g)
  8. Rashid ShaheedWR SEA v DEN5.5 proj-0.7
    On grass -2.4(16g)Outdoors -2.2(28g)
  9. Jameis WinstonQB NYG v NO15.2 proj-0.7
    At home -3.5(14g)As underdog +1.5(17g)
  10. Kyle PittsTE ATL v CHI7.3 proj-0.7
    vs CHI -4.4(2g)As underdog -1.6(33g)
  11. Cooper KuppWR SEA v DEN6.2 proj-0.6
    Outdoors -1.8(30g)On grass -1.6(19g)
  12. Laquon TreadwellWR IND v TEN4.0 proj-0.6
    In division -1.5(8g)On turf -1.2(7g)

On extra rest

Rest · 6 teams and 44 subjects are in this bucket this week, ranked on this one condition alone

Historically better

  1. Jayden DanielsQB WAS5g+5.5
  2. AJ Dillon84%RB CAR7g+5.2
  3. Cade OttonTE TB16g+3.5
  4. CeeDee LambWR DAL18g+2.5
  5. Christian McCaffreyRB SF20g+2.4
  6. Terry McLaurinWR WAS15g+2.4

Historically worse

  1. Mike EvansWR SF15g-5.9
  2. Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS5g-3.8
  3. Rashee RiceOWR KC10g-2.9
  4. Stefon Diggs36%WR WAS12g-2.4
  5. Jake FergusonTE DAL17g-1.8
  6. Chuba HubbardRB CAR9g-1.5

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