Week 6 edges
Who this week's conditions (venue, weather, spread, opponent) have historically suited.
Every number here is fantasy points per game against that subject's own career average, over games matching a condition week 6 repeats — so +3.0 means three points better than he usually is, not three points better than the next player. Eight conditions are known before kickoff: home or away, indoors or out, the surface, favourite or underdog, days of rest, the kickoff slot, whether it is a division game, and the opponent. Weather is not among them, because the schedule carries no forecast — only what the temperature turned out to be afterwards. This is history, not a projection. The house model does not use it: opponent and environment adjustments were measured against 10,000 player-weeks and made its forecasts worse. Starters only — the QB1, the K1, the TE1, RB1–RB2 and WR1–WR3, plus every defense — because a career split over a backup's handful of starts is a wide number attached to somebody who will not play.
How to read this
Every number here is fantasy points per game against that subject's own career average, over games matching a condition week 6 repeats — so +3.0 means three points better than he usually is, not three points better than the next player. Eight conditions are known before kickoff: home or away, indoors or out, the surface, favourite or underdog, days of rest, the kickoff slot, whether it is a division game, and the opponent. Weather is not among them, because the schedule carries no forecast — only what the temperature turned out to be afterwards. This is history, not a projection. The house model does not use it: opponent and environment adjustments were measured against 10,000 player-weeks and made its forecasts worse. Starters only — the QB1, the K1, the TE1, RB1–RB2 and WR1–WR3, plus every defense — because a career split over a backup's handful of starts is a wide number attached to somebody who will not play.
This week suits them
Best combined history under week 6's conditions
- vs TEN +4.5(6g)As favourite +3.5(25g)
- vs LA +5.6(5g)In division +2.9(18g)
- As favourite +3.6(17g)vs TEN +3.2(3g)
- On extra rest +5.5(5g)In primetime +1.9(8g)
- vs IND +5.6(5g)On turf +3.3(6g)
- vs SF +5.1(4g)On extra rest +2.1(15g)
- On short rest +6.2(11g)At home +1.9(24g)
- Indoors +3.2(16g)vs LA +3.1(3g)
- vs LA +8.1(3g)Indoors +2.5(13g)
- On the road +2.1(9g)As favourite +2.1(5g)
- Indoors +3.3(8g)On short rest +3.1(13g)
- On turf +2.6(20g)Indoors +1.4(39g)
This week works against them
Worst combined history under week 6's conditions
- As underdog -4.1(10g)Outdoors -3.8(13g)
- On grass -6.8(3g)vs KC -4.5(2g)
- In primetime -5.0(5g)On extra rest -3.8(5g)
- As favourite -5.1(4g)On the road -1.6(11g)
- vs ARI -8.7(3g)On short rest -2.5(12g)
- DAL D/STDST DAL v GB3.4 proj-0.8vs GB -6.3(3g)As underdog -1.9(33g)
- vs GB +8.5(3g)As underdog -2.4(21g)
- On grass -2.4(16g)Outdoors -2.2(28g)
- At home -3.5(14g)As underdog +1.5(17g)
- vs CHI -4.4(2g)As underdog -1.6(33g)
- Outdoors -1.8(30g)On grass -1.6(19g)
- In division -1.5(8g)On turf -1.2(7g)
On extra rest
Rest · 6 teams and 44 subjects are in this bucket this week, ranked on this one condition alone
Historically better
- Jayden DanielsQB WAS5g+5.5
- AJ Dillon84%RB CAR7g+5.2
- Cade OttonTE TB16g+3.5
- CeeDee LambWR DAL18g+2.5
- Christian McCaffreyRB SF20g+2.4
- Terry McLaurinWR WAS15g+2.4
Historically worse
- Mike EvansWR SF15g-5.9
- Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS5g-3.8
- Rashee RiceOWR KC10g-2.9
- Stefon Diggs36%WR WAS12g-2.4
- Jake FergusonTE DAL17g-1.8
- Chuba HubbardRB CAR9g-1.5